Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $37,129$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(28.7 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,545.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(49,545.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,420$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(0.247 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,334.7}{1 + 10^{-0.259 (t - 107.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,334.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,782$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,035$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{375,505.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 109.8)}}\) (asimptote \(375,505.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,405$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,032.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,032.6\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,402$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $131,886$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(690 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,588.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(160,588.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,934$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(27.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,379.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,379.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,841$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,299$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,669.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(69,669.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $461$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(60.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.7)}}\) (asimptote \(429.3\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,099$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,835$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,171.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 121.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48,171.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $150$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(167.5\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,678$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $280,093$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,077.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(316,077.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,949$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,525.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,525.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,089$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $79,159$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(998 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,328.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(100,328.8\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $421$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.03 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{677.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(677.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,317$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $233,851$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,656.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(213,656.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,747$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,248.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,248.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,607$ on 2020-08-03