Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,129$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(28.7 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,545.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(49,545.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,420$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(0.247 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,334.7}{1 + 10^{-0.259 (t - 107.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,334.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,782$ on 2020-08-03

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $312,035$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{375,505.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 109.8)}}\) (asimptote \(375,505.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,405$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,032.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,032.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,402$ on 2020-08-03

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,886$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(690 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,588.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(160,588.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,934$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(27.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,379.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,379.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,841$ on 2020-08-03

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,299$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,669.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(69,669.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $461$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(60.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.7)}}\) (asimptote \(429.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,099$ on 2020-08-03

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,835$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,171.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 121.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48,171.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $150$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(167.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,678$ on 2020-08-03

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $280,093$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,077.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(316,077.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,949$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,525.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,525.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,089$ on 2020-08-03

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $79,159$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(998 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,328.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(100,328.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $421$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(9.03 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{677.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(677.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,317$ on 2020-08-03

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $233,851$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,656.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(213,656.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,747$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,248.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,248.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,607$ on 2020-08-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 90%
Turkey recovered 87%
Pakistan recovered 77%
Sri Lanka recovered 68%
United Arab Emirates recovered 65%
Bahrain recovered 53%
Kuwait recovered 49%
Azerbaijan recovered 48%
Saudi Arabia recovered 44%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 40%
Uzbekistan recovered 5%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,423$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(139.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,363.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,363.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(281.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $770$ on 2020-08-03

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $280,461$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,359.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(294,359.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,999$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(451 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,476.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,476.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,065$ on 2020-08-03

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,828$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(362 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,930.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 78.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,930.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.85 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(144.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 8.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $300$ on 2020-08-03

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,163$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,056.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 96.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60,056.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $351$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(77.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(328.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,949$ on 2020-08-03